The Rally ‘Round the Flag Syndrome

The drums of global war are sounding again. Again.

No longer very great Britain have made the call to bomb the Syrian Assad regime. The Orange Hydra administration is tagging along, and are itching to send troops. Putin’s Russia are eager to defend their Assad ally from American attack.

Why now? What’s new? You don’t just go break the β€œin-case-of-emergency-need-for-WW3”-glass without good reason, right? Well, supposedly, Wicked Witch May and the Orange Hydra have had enough of Assad using chemical weapons against his domestic opponents.

But that’s not news…

Since the Arab Spring sent Syria into civil war in 2011, there have been 73 reported chemical weapon attacks in the conflict. There have been U.N. investigations, a Syrian Army disarmament program, and still these chemical attacks keep happening. Governments and the U.N. have reported both rebels and government forces using mustard, chlorine, and sarin gas. And we can only assume that there have been at least a dozen or so such attacks done unto IS-forces, though no record or complaint of such have surfaced with the international community (go figure).

There are chemical weapons being used in the Syrian civil war. There have been from the start. All sides seem to be using them, even if they were initially stockpiled by the Syrian government. Even the Turks and Kurds have been accused of using them.

So why does May and the Orange Hydra care all of a sudden?

Because foreign intervention wars can be great for domestic approval ratings. As long as you can excuse them on, for example, WMDs or chemical weapons. And the US hasn’t had a good offensive, full scale war since they trundled into Iraq. The second time. That’s 15 years ago now.

It is a commonly known theory among political scientists that a well managed foreign war can be great for domestic approval ratings, referred to as the β€œrally ’round the flag”-syndrome. Both May and the Orange Hydra can feel their administrations sinking. They’d have to by now. And desperate times call for desperate measures. Sending people to die in a foreign war is just the sort of gamble that might be the last one available to either of them. And you can be sure that Putin’s not going to let Trump trump all over one of his allies or miss the chance to trump the US.

After seven years of civil war, it looks like the Syrian conflict might escalate rather than not. Finally attracting the participation of failing superpowers. Not for oil. Not for chemical weapons. But because of a desperate need for red herrings to distract from their utter failures to manage their own states.

/Sebastian Lindberg 14/4-2018